There’s no secret formula to determine the cheapest time to book a cruise. As much as we’d all love to have a crystal ball, there’s no way to accurately predict how cruise prices fluctuate.
For many, booking a cruise vacation requires careful budgeting. Costs can quickly add up, from the base cruise fare to shore excursions, internet packages, specialty dining, airfare, and more. Not to mention, cruise fares have continuously increased over the last few years.
With rising costs across the travel sector, cruisers are more conscious than ever about spending their money wisely. Cruise ships are sailing with almost 100% occupancy these days, which directly influences pricing through supply and demand. With fewer cabins available to book, prices can rise dramatically. This makes it harder for last-minute cruisers to score a deal right before departure.
Because of this, we often get asked by cruisers when the best time is to book a cruise to save money. If only we had that magic crystal ball to give the answers!
Because no one can predict what will happen in the future, the best strategy we have to answer this question involves looking at history. By analyzing pricing data over the last 12 months, we can get a better idea of how cruise fares fluctuate over time.
For this analysis, we utilized the pricing trends from Gangwaze to examine the pricing trends across 11 different Carnival Cruise Line ships. We included a range of vessels, from the newest and biggest Excel Class ships to the smaller and older Fantasy Class ships.
To get the most accurate picture of the pricing, we selected itineraries with departure dates in March 2025. Of course, this likely includes increasing demand for spring break sailings beginning in mid-March.
The data provided by Gangwaze only shows historical trends for a 12-month period. As such, we wanted to select departure dates in the near future to understand the full scope of the pricing fluctuations. In addition, the website only provides the general trend biweekly, so we estimated an average for the actual numeric values by month to use in this analysis.
I spent time combing through trending data for balcony staterooms and interior cabins across Carnival’s fleet. The results were surprising, and here’s what I uncovered.
Why do cruise prices fluctuate?
Cruise lines rely on dynamic pricing models to determine cruise fares, and Carnival Cruise Line is no exception. Pricing is entirely based on supply and demand for each itinerary and cruise ship. When demand increases, supply decreases and this leads to rising prices. On the other hand, if demand is low or declines, there is a surplus of supply, which creates declining prices.
Unfortunately for consumers, cruising demand has skyrocketed. Carnival Corporation - the parent company for Carnival Cruise Line - reported in 2023 that their ships were sailing at an average occupancy rate of 100%. In addition, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) reported in 2023 that the global cruise passenger volume reached 31.7 million, surpassing 2019 figures by 7%. Demand is only expected to continue increasing.
Even still, demand varies across Carnival’s fleet when looking at cruise ships. The newest ships are always the highest in demand, which include Carnival’s three Excel Class ships: Carnival Jubilee, Carnival Celebration, and Mardi Gras. On the other hand, the cruise line’s oldest vessels are nearing 30 years old. These smaller cruise ships are less desirable and therefore feature lower prices typically.
Should you plan for a last-minute cruise deal? Probably not
It wasn’t too long ago that you could score incredible last-minute cruise deals. Many cruisers recall the post-pandemic period as a golden era for bargain fares. With demand at record lows, cruise lines slashed prices throughout 2021 and into 2022.
Now, however, securing a last-minute deal is far more challenging. While waiting to book your cruise once meant saving money, many believe this strategy is no longer as effective, and the data supports this. The longer you wait to book your cruise, the higher prices will likely increase as the departure date nears.
When looking at the 12-month period of pricing for 11 ships in Carnival’s fleet, we see an overall increase in price over the months. In fact, the average cruise fare increased by 41.44% from February 2024 to February 2025.
We can see across the board that cruise prices increase significantly as the departure date nears. Those who booked their cruise closer to the itinerary’s departure date paid the highest cruise fare compared to those who booked months in advance. This trend was consistent regardless of which cabin type, sailing, or ship that was booked.
How does cabin type affect pricing fluctuations?
An interesting finding in our pricing analysis was the difference in pricing fluctuations over the 12-month period for various cabin types. In this analysis, we looked only at interior and balcony cabins to compare the trends. We see the price increases fluctuate differently when you break down the average cruise fare increase by cabin type.
Interestingly, balcony cabins saw a smaller price hike than interior cabins, possibly reflecting Carnival’s target demographics. Carnival is known for having the most affordable cruise fares in the industry.
Interior cabins are often the most affordable staterooms available, as these small, windowless cabins lack many of the frills you’ll find in balcony or suite cabins. Even still, most budget cruisers don’t mind sacrificing these amenities to save money.
In this way, the cheapest cabins are potentially higher in demand because of the savings potential. Increased demand leads to higher pricing. On the other hand, balconies are more expensive, and Carnival cruisers might not see the value in paying extra for this higher-end cabin.
We can dig into this even further by breaking down the cabin category by ship class. Carnival’s newest and biggest Excel Class ships have the most staterooms onboard with an average of 2,600 cabins onboard. Around 66% of these are balcony staterooms.
Comparatively, the smaller Fantasy Class ships only have around 1,000 cabins, and most of these are interior staterooms. These older vessels only feature balconies in 9% of their staterooms.
With this in mind, we can see balcony cabins on Fantasy and Conquest Class ships had the most fluctuation, likely attributed to fewer staterooms available. With decreasing supply, the price increases to compensate.
Fantasy Class ships had an average increase of 50% in price for balcony staterooms. Also, the Conquest Class shows an average increase of 60% in balcony pricing over the 12-month period. In contrast, the new Excel Class ships only show an increase of 18% in balcony prices due to a larger supply onboard.
However, interior cabins are in higher demand on Excel Class ships. With fewer interior cabins to choose from compared to balcony staterooms, lower supply leads to increased fluctuation in pricing.
If you’re hoping to book one of these affordable staterooms on an Excel Class ship, you should book further in advance if you can. For example, an interior cabin on Carnival Jubilee increased in price by an average of 78% over the 12-month period!
In addition, if you’re planning to book a balcony cabin on an older ship with fewer options available, you’ll want to lock in your price further in advance. Those wanting a balcony cabin on Excel Class ships won’t need to worry about fluctuation as much due to increased supply, leading to more price stabilization.
If you want the cheapest price for your cruise, you should book more than 9 months before the sail date
Now that we've established the importance of not waiting to book your cruise until the last minute, you’re probably wondering when exactly you should plan to secure your cabin. This is an excellent question, especially considering some cruisers aren’t able to make a deposit years in advance. Lack of flexibility can make this strategy more difficult.
Based on our analysis, Carnival’s cruise prices begin increasing significantly around 9 months before the departure date. Between 12 and 9 months out, fares remain at their lowest and most stable, making this the best window to book your Carnival cruise.
For March 2025 sailings, most cruises saw a sharp price increase beginning in July 2024 and continuing through August 2024. While fares continued rising, pricing became more stable between five to seven months before departure.
Read more: Are Carnival cruises all-inclusive? Here's everything that's included with your Carnival cruise fare
Prices remained on an upward trend leading up to departure, with a notable spike within the final four months. Fares consistently climbed until one month before sailing, when all itineraries reached their highest recorded price.
If you’re able, it’s best to book your cruise at least nine months before the cruise’s departure date. We see prices are actually pretty stable between 10 to 12 months before the sail date. During this timeframe, we would suggest locking in a cruise fare to ensure the cheapest price.
Those who must wait longer to book a cruise, whether due to scheduling conflicts or budgeting constraints, should aim to book at least four months before departure. The final three months before a cruise sailing is the most expensive time to book, based on our analysis.
Carnival’s shorter sailings have a higher demand for spring break, regardless of the ship’s age
Carnival is best known for having some of the most fun ships at sea. These party ships attract a variety of cruisers, but most passengers onboard enjoy the upbeat, energetic, and fun atmosphere that Carnival brings. The cruise line’s shorter, weekend getaway sailings are notorious for having one giant party.
It’s no surprise that these itineraries are the highest in demand for spring breakers, leading to higher prices from increased demand. These older ships have fewer cabins available too, which decreases supply compared to the cruise line’s larger ships with more cabins available.
With spring break starting in March each year, we can see in the data how shorter sailings are in higher demand, leading to more price fluctuations over time. In the data, we can see Carnival ships sailing for 4-night or 5-night itineraries had significantly higher increases in price change.
Carnival’s cruise ships with an average itinerary of four nights had an increase in price of 55% over the 12-month period. Itineraries with five nights had the second highest price increase of 48%. Surprisingly, this includes Carnival’s oldest ships in our dataset: Carnival Conquest, Carnival Fantasy, and Carnival Sunrise.
In contrast, the 7-night itineraries in March had more stable pricing over the 12-month period. The Excel Class and Vista Class ships sailing on 7-night itineraries only show an increase in price of 34% from February 2024 to February 2025.
If you’re planning to book a shorter cruise, especially during spring break, book as early as you can to save money. These itineraries saw the steepest price hikes, making it crucial for cruisers to book as early as they can. With stronger demand for quick getaways, these sailings are more susceptible to price fluctuation.
Comparatively, Carnival’s longer itineraries are more predictable with pricing. We see more stable fluctuation over the 12-month period for 7-night cruises, mostly on Excel and Dream Class ships. These are safer options for those who might need to wait longer to book.
What other insights can we find about Carnival’s pricing data?
While digging through pricing data for Carnival, we uncovered a few other interesting tidbits about the cruise line. For instance, Carnival Jubilee was the most expensive ship to book for March 2025 of the 11 ships that we analyzed.
This is not surprising, as Carnival Jubilee is the newest Excel Class ship in Carnival's fleet. Sailing year-round from Galveston, Texas, the massive vessel has been in high demand since her 2023 debut.
However, her sister ship, Carnival Celebration, was not nearly as expensive. We see Carnival Vista and Carnival Dream have the other highest pricing averages during our 12-month time frame. It seems that Carnival’s Texas sailings are in high demand, as Carnival Dream is also sailing Caribbean from Galveston, while Carnival Vista is sailing from Port Canaveral.
Although Carnival’s oldest ships had the most price fluctuation over the 12-month period, the average cost for these sailings is among the lowest. The average fare for Carnival Conquest, Carnival Sunrise, and Carnival Elation were at the bottom of our list for average price.
For those wanting to sail on a new Excel Class ship without busting their budget, I would recommend booking Carnival Celebration. This newer vessel, which was launched in 2022, has the fourth-lowest average price for March 2025. In addition, these vessels had fewer fluctuations and more stable pricing, especially for balcony cabins.
Allie Hubers
Allie Hubers has been cruising since she was a tiny toddler. What started as a yearly vacation with family quickly turned into a passion for travel, cruising and adventure. Allie's been on over 45 cruises all over the world. She even studied abroad on Semester at Sea, sailing the world on a ship while taking courses for college and visiting 4 continents.
